Константин Сонин (ksonin) wrote,
Константин Сонин
ksonin

Как везде

Вот что пишет Олег Ицхоки, профессор Принстона, один из самых известных в мире макроэкономистов российского (экономфак МГУ - РЭШ) происхождения о  российском кризисе - 2014. А то я вчера жалел, что у нас учёных в дискуссии явно не хватает.

А вот что пишет Юрий Городниченко, профессор Беркли, не менее - если не более - известный макроэкономист украинского происхождения (КШЭ): "In short, I see two choices. First, raise interest rates to defend the ruble and send the economy into recession but help those who borrowed in $. In all likelihood, the central bank will have to raise the rates even more and so recession could be pretty bad. Second, let the ruble depreciate more (and so help the economy recover by exporting more) but this can lead to big problems for those who borrowed in $ (households, banks, firms) thus making deleveraging in Russia even more painful. If the banking system collapses because of this and the central bank does nothing to stop it, it could be a disaster. In any case, Russia seems to have a sudden stop and, if history is any guide, a downturn is almost inevitable."
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